What to look for….

Will the ghosts of four years ago haunt Julian Castro this election day? The Castro Camp is sure hoping not, as a matter of fact they would like to wrap it up during the general election and not have to face a runoff. Here’s a few things I’ve been hearing and things to look for once the election results start rolling in.
#1 – I’m told that Castro needs to have 55 percent of the vote from the early voting total to have a chance to win without a runoff. The early vote is usually the first totals that come in so we should have an idea by 8:30 how he’s doing.
2 – Who will challenge Castro if there’s a runoff? My gut tends to lean to Trish Deberry-Mejia, but I have also been told not to discount Diane Cibrian. The key is getting your voters out. You would think Cibrian has built in backers in her council district, but will they show up? Is Deberry-Mejia going to succeed with republican voters? Who does Sheila McNeil hurt more by her late entry into the race? Do the 3 of them cancel each other out, allowing Castro to get to the 50 percent mark he needs to avoid the runoff?
3 – My gut tells me Castro will get to 50 percent, my head tells me with all of these candidates in the race he may get stuck in the high 40’s. I think anything below 40 percent of the vote going to Castro and he’s got problems.
Let me know what you think and your predictions, I’ll keep checking in. Steve

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