Sports - Houston Astros Season Preview

By Simon Gutierrez

KSAT.com

New Astros manager Cecil Cooper is optimistic about his team’s chances in 2008. He said so. So did General Manager Ed Wade, who orchestrated a flurry off offseason moved that radically changed the current and future makeup of the team. Me, I don’t buy it, and here, in one word, is why: Pitching.

Go back to the 2004 World Series team, and you’ll see what I mean. Leading the charge down the stretch and into the playoffs, a rotation anchored by Roy Oswalt, backed by potential Hall of Famers Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. This year? It’s Oswalt, then pray for four days of rain. Projected #2 starter? Wandy Rodriguez. That should send chills down any Astros fan’s spine.

That’s not to say the Astros are going to be horrible. Their revamped offense should put on a pretty good show. The additions of Michael Bourn at the top of the lineup, and Miguel Tejada in the middle give the Astros a formidable batting order that should give opposing pitchers pause, having to navigate through promising youngster Hunter Pence, then Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and Miguel Tejada. That’s a solid 2-3-4-5 punch. Any one of those guys can hurt you.

Speaking of Tejada, though, it’s wise not to get too excited. Beyond his suspected use of performance enhancing drugs, and the potential distractions surrounding that, he’s no spring chicken any more. He’s going to be 32 in May, scouts report he’s moving like dump truck at shortstop, and his power numbers have declined each of the last four years. Here are his HR/Slugging Pct. splits from 2004 on: 34/.534; 26/.515; 24/.498; and 18/.442. Equally troubling, his batting average and on base percentage have followed the same trend. Granted, a shortstop who hits near .300 with 18 homers and drives in 80 runs is nothing to sneeze at, but this is a guy who cost the Astros three of their best pitching prospects and their best power hitting prospect.

So, how will this team do? Well, last year, without Tejada, the Astros struggled to win 73 games, good for fourth place in a relatively weak central division. This year, both the Cubs, Brewers, and Reds are improved, and all three teams have better pitching. My prediction: A slight step forward for the Astros as well, thanks mostly to their lineup and the potential for four guys to finish with 20 or more home runs. I see 78-82 wins, good enough for a fourth place finish behind, in order, the Cubs, Brewers, and Reds.

Projected Astros Lineup:

1. Michael Bourn CF
2. Hunter Pence RF
3. Lance Berkman 1B
4. Carlos Lee LF
5. Miguel Tejada SS
6. Ty Wigginton 3b
7. Mark Loretta 2B
8. J.R. Towles C

Projected Astros Pitching Rotation:

1. Roy Oswalt

2. Wandy Rodriguez

3. Brandon Backe

4. Woody Williams

5. Shawn Chacon

Closer:

Jose Valverde

Coming up next time, three Astros players to watch in 2008, and why.

Simon Gutierrez is a reporter at KSAT who spent two years at ESPN producing documentaries and working on SportsCenter.